Table 8

Predictive value for having persistent disease in UA patients using different cut-off values for number of erosive joints

Number of erosive joints

n

PPV

(95% CI)

NPV

(95% CI)

Specificity

(95% CI)

Sensitivity

(95% CI)

LR+

LR-

AUC (SEM)

≥1

148

65

57-73

41

36-46

75

69-81

31

26-36

1.2

0.93

53 (0.026)

≥2

83

68

57-78

41

36-46

87

82-92

18

14-22

1.4

0.95

52 (0.026)

≥3

50

70

57-83

41

36-45

93

89-96

11

8-15

1.5

0.96

52 (0.026)

≥4

24

68

48-86

40

36-44

96

93-99

5

3-8

1.3

0.99

51 (0.026)

≥5

15

73

51-96

40

36-44

98

96-100

4

2-6

1.8

0.98

51 (0.026)

n = number of UA patients positive for this cutoff.

Patients with remission 205 (39.6%).

Patients with persistent disease 313 (60.4%).

AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval; LR+ = positive likelihood ratio; LR- = negative likelihood ratio; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; SEM = standard error of measurement; UA = undifferentiated arthritis.

Thabet et al. Arthritis Research & Therapy 2009 11:R155   doi:10.1186/ar2832